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24-12-2007: BELGIUM'S LAST CHAPTER: TO BE OR NOT TO BE?

Belgium is left with two choices: bolster the federal government or call it a day. More than half a year without a government and no solution in sight... It was only a matter of time before Belgium would wake up to its own political reality... and it is not a pleasant awakening. For nearly one and a half century Belgium constituted a nation state with a centralised government based in Brussels. It was only in the seventies, under Flemish nationalist pressure, that the country embarked on the slippery slope of de-facto federalism. It is common knowledge that federalism as a result of opposition (rather than consensus) should be approached with extreme caution... but five state reforms later and all caution is out of the window! The last forty years have seen the end of most vital national institutions such as political parties and the national television and radio stations, having all regrouped on linguistic basis. As a result of five successive state reforms aimed at pleasing everyone, the Belgian political scene has become an unintelligible mess for politicians, citizens and visitors alike.

Since 1993 Belgium is officially a federal state, with remnants of a federal government, consisting of three language communities, with roughly six million Dutch speakers in the North of the country and a minority in Brussels, 4 million French speakers in the South and a majority in Brussels, as well as a German-speaking community, which has about 70.000 inhabitants. Each language community has its own parliament and government, responsible for the control of culture, education and some aspects of public healthcare. Besides that, to make matters more complicated, Belgium has three non-congruent (regions and communities overlap but do not coincide) regions with their own competences such as economic development, infrastructure/transport, environment, housing, agriculture, some aspects of employment, energy and water distribution, etc... Belgium would thus have seven governments and parliaments, were it not for the propitious merger of the institutions of the Dutch-speaking community and the Flemish region, leaving it with only six!

With no federal political parties to speak of and the impossibility for the voter to vote for candidates from another linguistic community, political agendas on a federal level are increasingly influenced by regional interests and Flemish nationalism. As if five futile reforms were not enough, the majority of the Flemish electorate and the overwhelming majority of the Flemish mandarins would like to see a sixth one, just for good measure...

As it stands today, coalition negotiations on a federal level have reached an impasse over two issues. On the one hand the Dutch-speaking parties are calling for a new state reform granting even more autonomy and powers to the regions/communities, as well as reducing the economic “solidarity” from Flanders to Wallonia, which the French-speaking community is loath to concede. On the other hand the Flemish are seeking to split the electoral district of Brussels/Halle/Vilvoorde (BHV). Currently people living in Brussels or the surrounding communes (part of Flanders and not of Brussels) can vote for French and Dutch speaking parties alike... since many of those communes have a majority of French-speaking inhabitants. However, in order to protect the “Flemish culture and language “, Flemish parties are asking for the electoral district to be split and allow only Flemish parties to be represented in the communes around Brussels. This is another demand from the Flemish that the French-speaking community is not willing to give in to without something in return. (Such as, for instance, the expansion of Brussels to include some surrounding communes...).

Whereas the constitutional reform and BHV may be the high-profile issues that currently divide the country, they are merely symptoms of a much deeper malaise. Carefully exploited Flemish nationalism as a result of a generalised inferiority complex, in combination with the Flemish economic ascendancy of the last decades, have convinced the Dutch-speaking population that they should protect themselves from francophones and immigrants, whilst safeguarding their “hard-earned” wealth instead of watching it disappear in a big black hole. To be fair, the sheer incompetence of the political elite in Wallonia should carry half of the blame... but one thing is sure, solidarity has left the house!

Today Belgium (barely) stands with its back against the wall and the situation calls for drastic measures. Half-baked solutions will only increase current frustrations, as the country slowly grinds to a halt. The disposition of Belgium is such that it either exists or it doesn’t, and nothing in between. It is often said that in Belgium you can either be a federalist (emphasis on the federal state), a con-federalist (emphasis on the member states) or a separatist... This is simply wrong. It is time to realise that the con-federalist path has taken Belgium’s politicians to the edge of a cliff and can no longer be pursued. The confused politicians and citizens of Belgium now have to choose between grabbing the separatists by the hand, close their eyes and jump; or heed the distant sounds of the moderate federalists that were left behind at the crossroads all those years ago and try to find their way back across treacherous country.

Wallonia and Flanders are like a married couple that is growing apart and sleeping in separate bedrooms, blaming each other for all that went wrong with increasingly bitter resentment. Like in any failing marriage, the parties involved are faced with two choices: rekindle the passion or file for divorce. Saving a marriage is hard work and significant concessions from both parties are called for if a continued Belgian union is to be guaranteed. Such is the reality of marriage. Separation, on the other hand, may appear as the easier solution, but the custody battle over Brussels could turn nasty... or simply impossible to resolve. Such is the reality of divorce.

In reality the two issues at hand, BHV and the constitutional reform, present Belgium with a unique opportunity to resolve their marital issues, once and for all. Any decision taken on these two issues will be indicative of all decisions to come, so rather than attempting yet another useless, aggravating and confusing constitutional reform towards more autonomy for the regions, the current issues could be put to good use and provide the ideal opportunity for moderate federalists to grab the bull by the horns. In any case, considering that all proposals are headed for rejection as long as the con-federalist approach prevails, it is time for the federalists to pick up the torch and tackle them from a different angle.

More recent developments have seen Guy Verhofstadt, the Caretaker Prime Minister (and potentially a “moderate federalist”), put in charge of forming and leading an interim government - by royal request no less - while he paves the way for the formation of a permanent government. In order to do this he needs to find common ground that both French-speaking and Dutch-speaking parties can agree on, to then proceed with the formation of a coalition government; a task that Yves Leterme, victor of the last elections and chief candidate for the post of Prime Minster, failed to bring to a good end after a series of negotiations that dragged on for months. This has now led to latest situation where the Caretaker Prime Minister (a liberal – Open VLD) has asked his rival (a conservative Flemish nationalist - CD&V) to become his Vice Prime Minister in an interim government and resume the talks that would have to lead to a state reform and eventually a legitimate government.

This will not lead to a solution and even if it does, it will be short-lived. Yves Leterme is anything but a “moderate federalist”... He is a fervent “con-federalist”, if there ever was one, and his party has been in bed with the separatist N-VA since before the elections. Whether under supervision of Verhofstadt or not, he will continue to insist on a version of the state reform that will remain inacceptable to the French-speaking community. Verhofstadt realises that the country is in need of a substantial constitutional reform. But rather than following the logic from the past 40 years, heading towards ever more regional autonomy, he should propose a reform that will reinforce the federal government and restore some of the country's fiscal and economic unity. The same thorough constitutional reform could also solve the issue of BHV by allowing all Belgian parties, whatever their origin, to be eligible on electoral lists nation-wide, offering voters the possibility to vote for French- or Dutch speaking parties alike, no matter where they live.

To grant legitimacy to such a constitutional reform, and solve the Belgian question for once and for all, a draft constitution should be put to the people in a referendum. Should the reform be deemed inacceptable by the majority of the Belgians and the draft be rejected by popular vote, it would be a very clear sign on the wall that the political elite could and would not ignore. It would force them to act accordingly and declare the end of Belgium. Should there, however, be wide support for the draft state reform, the federal state of Belgium would emerge victorious, strengthened and invigorated. The current situation in Belgium is unliveable and the current setup unworkable. No amount of constitutional reforms or splitting of electoral districts will change anything about this and it is time that the Belgians (but especially the Flemish) faced the music: to BE or not to BE.

Gepubliceerd door Arnaud Houdmont op 24-12-2007

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